Expected Goals leaders in the Scottish Championship

Martyn Waghorn, courtesy of Ian MacNicol (Getty Images)

written by – Rangers Report

What are Expected Goals?

Devin Pleuler, the Manager of Analytics for Toronto FC, described Expected Goals in a post for OptaPro in 2014 – “Expected Goals is a calculation that is attached to each attempted shot and measures it’s chance of resulting in a goal.”

“The method of calculation differs between models (and the iterations of those models), but they broadly take into account the same types of things. Such as, but not limited to, a shot’s distance from goal, what phase of play it came from, and even what body part the shot came off of.”

Michael Caley, the xG guru added in his description of Expected Goals – “When you’re following a match, you’re watching for the creation of chances, getting excited when it appears a scoring chance might be conjured for your team or getting worried when the other team is building one. We all watch for something like “expected goals.” Managers and players create tactics aimed at creating good chances and preventing them for their opponents.”

GMxG represents Actual Goals minus Expected Goals

Team xG Statistics

Team xG Non-penalty goals GMxG Points
Rangers 20.6 26 5.4 30
Hibs 14.3 15 0.7 19
Morton 13.8 9 -4.8 10
Raith Rovers 13.8 12 -1.8 21
Queen of the South 9.4 11 1.6 14
Falkirk 9.1 10 0.9 18
Livingston 7.8 7 -0.8 4
St Mirren 7.4 13 5.6 10
Dumbarton 7.3 8 0.7 10
Alloa 6.6 6 -0.6 5
Mark Stewart, courtesy of SNS

Individual xG Leaders

Player Team Age Shots SoT NPG xG GMxG
Martyn Waghorn Rangers 25 44 26 5 4.2 0.8
Denny Johnstone Morton 20 24 11 2 3.3 -1.3
Mark Stewart Raith Rovers 27 17 8 3 3.2 -0.2
Jason Cummings Hibs 20 21 12 3 2.9 0.1
Dominique Malonga Hibs 26 16 9 2 2.8 -0.8
Kenny Miller Rangers 35 14 7 2 2.6 -0.6
Jason Holt Rangers 22 12 6 3 2.6 0.4
Lee Wallace Rangers 28 20 9 5 2.5 2.5
Jamie McCluskey Morton 25 16 5 1 2.3 -1.3
Derek Lyle Queen of the South 34 27 12 5 2.3 2.7
James Tavernier Rangers 24 30 11 5 2.2 2.8
Liam Henderson Hibs 19 15 4 3 2.0 1.0
Craig Wighton Raith Rovers 18 14 6 1 1.8 -0.8
Jon Daly Raith Rovers 32 14 3 0 1.8 -1.8
Barrie McKay Rangers 20 9 3 2 1.7 0.3
Bobby Barr Morton 27 14 5 1 1.7 -0.7
Blair Alston Falkirk 23 9 3 1 1.6 -0.6
David Gray Hibs 27 8 2 0 1.6 -1.6
Will Vaulks Falkirk 22 16 7 2 1.6 0.4
John Baird Falkirk 30 16 7 1 1.6 -0.6

NPG refers to non-penalty goals

You can follow Rangers Report on Twitter @TheGersReport

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