written by – Rangers Report
What are Expected Goals?
Devin Pleuler, the Manager of Analytics for Toronto FC, described Expected Goals in a post for OptaPro in 2014 – “Expected Goals is a calculation that is attached to each attempted shot and measures it’s chance of resulting in a goal.”
“The method of calculation differs between models (and the iterations of those models), but they broadly take into account the same types of things. Such as, but not limited to, a shot’s distance from goal, what phase of play it came from, and even what body part the shot came off of.”
Michael Caley, the xG guru added in his description of Expected Goals – “When you’re following a match, you’re watching for the creation of chances, getting excited when it appears a scoring chance might be conjured for your team or getting worried when the other team is building one. We all watch for something like “expected goals.” Managers and players create tactics aimed at creating good chances and preventing them for their opponents.”
GMxG represents Actual Goals minus Expected Goals
Team xG Statistics
| Team | xG | Non-penalty goals | GMxG | Points |
| Rangers | 20.6 | 26 | 5.4 | 30 |
| Hibs | 14.3 | 15 | 0.7 | 19 |
| Morton | 13.8 | 9 | -4.8 | 10 |
| Raith Rovers | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 | 21 |
| Queen of the South | 9.4 | 11 | 1.6 | 14 |
| Falkirk | 9.1 | 10 | 0.9 | 18 |
| Livingston | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 | 4 |
| St Mirren | 7.4 | 13 | 5.6 | 10 |
| Dumbarton | 7.3 | 8 | 0.7 | 10 |
| Alloa | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 | 5 |
Individual xG Leaders
| Player | Team | Age | Shots | SoT | NPG | xG | GMxG |
| Martyn Waghorn | Rangers | 25 | 44 | 26 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| Denny Johnstone | Morton | 20 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 |
| Mark Stewart | Raith Rovers | 27 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| Jason Cummings | Hibs | 20 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| Dominique Malonga | Hibs | 26 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| Kenny Miller | Rangers | 35 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 |
| Jason Holt | Rangers | 22 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Lee Wallace | Rangers | 28 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Jamie McCluskey | Morton | 25 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| Derek Lyle | Queen of the South | 34 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| James Tavernier | Rangers | 24 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Liam Henderson | Hibs | 19 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Craig Wighton | Raith Rovers | 18 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| Jon Daly | Raith Rovers | 32 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| Barrie McKay | Rangers | 20 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Bobby Barr | Morton | 27 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| Blair Alston | Falkirk | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| David Gray | Hibs | 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| Will Vaulks | Falkirk | 22 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| John Baird | Falkirk | 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
NPG refers to non-penalty goals
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