written by – Rangers Report
“If you don’t shoot, you can’t score.” Wayne Gretzky, the all-time leading goal scorer in NHL history with 894 goals
Goals are random & often rare events, but logic dictates that the more shots you take, the more likely you are to score & vice versa. Of course, the quality of shots & how that translates into Expected Goals is another discussion.
Total Shots Ratio (TSR) measures what percent of shots a team takes per game (shots for/shots for & against). To give you a sense of it’s basic usefulness in measuring the performance levels of team, here is the TSR leaderboard for the Scottish Championship – along with the team’s points earned.
|Queen of the South||0.47||17|
- Note the only three teams that generate the majority of shots per match are also the top three clubs in the league standings. That’s not a coincidence.
- If Rangers continue to take 70% of the shots in their matches – they will win this league.
- Please realize that Total Shots Ratio is a relatively, basic metric & should really be used as one measure of a team’s play in a bigger evaluation of performance that incorporates other ‘fancy stats’ like Shots on Target Ratio, PDO, Expected Goals Ratio – just to name a few.
However, the purpose of this post is to look at Total Shots Ratio on an individual level when it pertains to Rangers.
This is very common when evaluating players in the NHL & in hockey it makes sense. A player only has four other skaters on the ice with him & so you can really get a sense of which players are driving possession & creating/suppressing shots for their team.
It’s trickier to use TSR as a method of evaluating individual players in football because they share the pitch with nine other players (not including the goalie).
But, it can & should serve as an entry point for further analysis to hone in on what a player is doing to impact the overall play of the team. This pertains especially to the ‘outliers’ – players whose TSR is significantly higher or lower than the team’s.
Rangers Total Shots Ratio Leaders
|Min||Tm Shots||Tm Shots Against||TSR|
Above you have minutes played, shots for & against for the team when the player is on the pitch, & their TSR
- Andy Halliday is the only Rangers player to play every minute in the league this season – so his numbers reflect the team as a whole. Anyone above has a higher TSR then the team & the same for players below his 0.70 TSR
- While Dean Shiels has played limited minutes this season, it is difficult to overlook the fact that Rangers take 80% of the shots when he is on the pitch. Like I mentioned earlier – this should signal an entry point for more analysis. More specifically, this could lead to a specific lens to review video of how the team plays when Shiels is on the pitch & what he is doing to contribute to that play. It may just be that Shiels usually enters the match as a sub & either fatigue or a tactical change is triggering these results. Or maybe it’s the directness he brings to the match – for example, he had three controlled entries into the final third in only eight minutes against Hibs.
- Nicky Law & Nathan Oduwa have had similar results in basically the same amount of playing time. The two have started 42% of the matches that they have played (compared to 20% for Shiels), so their impact is less about when they entered the match & more about how the team plays with them in the lineup. For Oduwa, there is an urgency to his game when he is playing well. Maybe that has a significant impact on the overall team play & that’s a factor in his higher TSR. Law, who has been an enigmatic player in his Rangers career, would be a real interesting study to see how the team is playing with him in the lineup compared to the player her replaced.
- There are two big surprises on this list, the first being the discrepancy between Danny Wilson & Dominic Ball. The subjective, ‘eyeball test’ suggests that Ball has performed better than Wilson, especially in Ball’s recent spell of games. Are Wilson’s numbers skewed by the fact he played uninterrupted in the first part of the season where Rangers completely dominated the opposition? But, the difference in shots against is startling. Rangers have given up 46 shots in Ball’s 418 minutes & only 16 more with Wilson in the lineup. That’s 16 more shots in 450 more minutes! It may just be a coincidence but it definitely begs for a deeper review of both players performances.
- The other surprise is Gedion Zelalem’s TSR of 0.63 – which is .07 below the team’s TSR of 0.70. This is coming from a player who has had a significant impact on dictating Rangers entries into the attacking third. Is this a sign that Rangers are more effective playing with a higher tempo & that players like Oduwa, Shiels, & Law are better at generating that tempo? It’s too difficult to really support that generalization without the further assessment that would accompany video analysis – but what you do see is the power that some of this data can have to generate some questions to think about as a team constantly looks for ways to improve.
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