written by – Rangers Report

Remember when a major talking point for both the media & supporters was the fact that Rangers had yet to score a headed goal?  Well, now they have two (!) in thirteen matches.  That’s two whole goals behind the league leaders.

Where have all the headed goals gone?

There have been 174 goals scored in the Scottish Championship this season & of those goals, only 23 have been headers.  That’s 13% of the goals.

Of the 1,363 shots taken only 229 have come from the head.  That’s 17%.

So was the outcry about Rangers not getting headed goals another example of hyperbolic reactions from those who follow & cover the team?

Obviously, Mark Warburton’s desired style of play does not put an emphasis on a strong aerial presence up front & given that Rangers have scored 39 goals this season, which is 14 more than the next team – should it even matter?

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Here are the team totals for the season.  Teams are ranked by their Expected Goals total from headed shots.

Team	Headed Shots	Headed Shots on Target	Headed Goals	Hd Sh Acc	Hd Sh%	HdxG	GmxG	% of total goals
Hibs	27	9	3	0.333	0.333	3.03	-0.03	0.27
Raith Rovers	34	11	4	0.324	0.364	2.79	1.21	0.10
Queen of the South	33	18	3	0.545	0.167	2.25	0.75	0.25
Livingston	23	11	4	0.478	0.364	2.14	1.86	0.31
Dumbarton	20	4	2	0.200	0.500	2.11	-0.11	0.13
Falkirk	25	9	3	0.360	0.333	1.98	1.02	0.12
Morton	21	8	2	0.381	0.250	1.74	0.26	0.09
St Mirren	18	9	0	0.500	0.000	1.20	-1.20	0.00
Rangers	16	8	2	0.500	0.250	1.09	0.91	0.13
Alloa Athetic	12	5	0	0.417	0.000	0.99	-0.99	0.00
Totals	229	92	23	0.402	0.250	19.32	3.68	0.13

Hd Sh Acc is the percentage of headed shots that are on target.  Hd Sh% is the percentage of headed shots on target that are goals.  HdxG is the total Expected Goals off headed shots.  GmxG refers to the difference between headed goals & Expected Goals.  % of total goals is how many of the team’s goals have been headers.

• Rangers have the second lowest total of headed shots but only two less goals then Raith Rovers & Livingston.  Their shooting percentage is equal to the league average, as is their percentage of goals coming from headers.  The capacity is there for more headed shots & goals but it would mean a change in tactical approach.  Such a change would only be situational given the trade-offs that would result.
• You may wonder how Hibs have more Expected Goals then teams like Raith & Livingston.  Basically Hibs are more effective at getting their shots closer to goal.  They have eleven Very High Danger headed shots, while Raith & Livi have nine combined. These are shots coming within the vicinity of the goalie’s six yard box.
• These numbers hone in on a crucial area of improvement for a team like Queen of the South.  They have the second most headed shots in the league & 25% of their goals have come from headers.  But look closer & you see a team that needs to desperately improve on their finishing.  Of those headed shots 55% have been on target (which is the highest accuracy percentage in the league & significantly better then the league average).  However, only 17% of those shots on target have been goals, which is way below the league average of 25%.

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Here are the individual leaders for headed shots.

Player	Team	Position	Minutes	Headed Shots	Headed Shots on Target	Headed Goals	Hd Sh Acc	Hd Sh%	HdxG	GmxG	% of total goals
Derek Lyle	Queen of the South	Forward	1168	15	9	2	0.600	0.222	1.11	0.89	0.40
Jon Daly	Raith Rovers	Forward	900	14	4	1	0.286	0.250	1.25	-0.25	1.00
Liam Fontaine	Hibs	Defender	826	7	1	1	0.143	1.000	0.92	0.08	1.00
Denny Johnstone	Morton	Forward	1140	6	2	0	0.333	0.000	0.50	-0.50	0.00
Declan Gallagher	Livingston	Defender	1170	6	2	1	0.333	0.500	0.64	0.36	1.00
Martyn Waghorn	Rangers	Forward	1141	5	3	1	0.600	0.333	0.44	0.56	0.07
Andy Dowie	Queen of the South	Defender	820	5	2	0	0.400	0.000	0.38	-0.38	—
Kyle Benedictus	Raith Rovers	Defender	990	5	2	1	0.400	0.500	0.30	0.70	1.00
Steven Thompson	St. Mirren	Forward	788	4	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.38	-0.38	0.00
Calum Gallagher	St. Mirren	Forward	959	4	3	0	0.750	0.000	0.24	-0.24	0.00
Garry Fleming	Dumbarton	Forward	1086	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.38	-0.38	0.00
David Gray	Hibs	Defender	1120	4	2	0	0.500	0.000	0.52	-0.52	—
Paul Hanlon	Hibs	Defender	1080	4	1	1	0.250	1.000	0.52	0.48	1.00
Jason Cummings	Hibs	Forward	1001	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.38	-0.38	0.00
Will Vaulks	Falkirk	Defender	1170	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.24	-0.24	0.00
Craig Sibbald	Falkirk	Forward	1168	4	3	1	0.750	0.333	0.24	0.76	0.50
John Baird	Falkirk	Forward	1060	4	2	1	0.500	0.500	0.66	0.34	0.13
Lee Miller	Falkirk	Forward	333	4	2	0	0.500	0.000	0.24	-0.24	0.00
Gary Oliver	Queen of the South	Forward	526	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.24	-0.24	0.00
Lewis Toshney	Raith Rovers	Defender	1125	4	2	2	0.500	1.000	0.38	1.62	2.00
Craig Sives	Livingston	Defender	387	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.18	-0.18	—
Jordan White	Livingston	Forward	572	4	2	1	0.500	0.500	0.52	0.48	0.25
Jordyn Sheerin	Livingston	Forward	403	4	1	0	0.250	0.000	0.24	-0.24	0.00

• As you can see the days of the one-dimensional target man are in the past – even at this level of Scottish football.  Derek Lyle & Jon Daly are heads & shoulder over the rest of the field.  However, while 74% of Daly’s shots are headers, only 44% of Lyle’s shots came off the noggin.  Teams are relying on more well rounded players up front.  Of Denny Johnstone’s shots, 20% were headers – for Martyn Waghorn it’s 9% & for Jason Cummings it is 11%.
• Even 6’4 Jordan White, who has been championed by this site in recent weeks, has displayed a more complete game with 27% of his shots being headers.  He’s an aerial threat but he is also adept at creating other scoring chances within the penalty area.
• Rangers only have one player, Waghorn, with more than three headed shots.  Rob Kiernan is second on the team with three & only two others have more than one headed shot.
• Hibs are clearly targeting their defenders on set pieces & it has been effective with two of their three headed goals coming from defenders.
• It is very interesting to note that after 13 matches only two players have multiple headed goals.

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