Analytics Quick Hit: Who are Raith Rovers’ sharpshooters? Who is snakebit?

Jon Daly, courtesy of Roddy Scott (SNS)

written by – Rangers Report

In this Analytics Quick Hit, we will examine the finishing abilities of the Raith Rovers squad by using Expected Goals per shot in relation to first, shooting percentages & then shooting accuracy.

xG per shot:  the likelihood of the players’ average shot to be a goal.  Players who are averaging close to 0.20 xG per shot or more are getting shots off in High Danger areas.  The further away from 0.20, the further away players are from the heart of the penalty box.  The exception would be headers – which, unless they are coming from within the vicinity of the six yard box, are not scoring at a high rate this season (7% of headers from the heart of the box have been goals – compared to 28% from the within the six yard box).

shooting percentage:  the percentage of shots on target that are goals.

shooting accuracy:  the percentage of shots on goal that are actually on target.

Note:  penalty shots are not included

Raith xG per shot v Sh%

The shooting percentage (goals/shots on target) is along the vertical axis & the Expected Goals per shot runs along the horizontal.

  • Jason Thomson has one goal on three shots so don’t look too much into his results
  • Mark Stewart leads Raith with six goals & his success has come from his ability to generate shots from High/Very High Danger areas.  Of his 25 shots, 76% have come from the heart of the penalty area.  His shooting percentage is 0.666 from those shots.  So, he is the player to watch on Saturday.
  • Jon Daly is hovering between ‘Don’t Expect Much’ & ‘Snakebit’.  Obviously, most of his shots have been headers.  Of his 21 shots, 16 have been off the noggin.  Of those, 25% have come from a Very High Danger area (the six yard box) & that is where his only goal has come.  The other 12 headed shots have come a little further out & Daly has had little success when he is pushed away from the goal.  Of the 12 headers from a High Danger area, only four have been on target.

Rath Shooting Accuracy v xG per shot

  • Given that Scott Robertson & Jason Thomson have combined for only six shots, it is difficult to make any conclusions about them being outliers.
  • Besides Grant Anderson, the rest of the players are getting the results you would expect given where they are shooting from.
  • Anderson has taken 12 shots, but only three have been on target.  His xG per shot is 0.154 which indicates he is getting the majority of his shots from within the penalty area & a decent number are coming from High Danger areas.  He’s actually had three shots from Very High Dangers areas, with two being on target (both of them were goals).  So he has only been on target on one of his nine other shots.
Player Goals Goals per 90 minutes
Mark Stewart 6 0.43
Mitch Meggison 1 0.24
James Craigen 3 0.23
Grant Anderson 2 0.20
Scott Robertson 1 0.16
Craig Wighton 1 0.13
Jason Thomson 1 0.10
Jon Daly 1 0.09
Kyle Benedictus 1 0.08
Lewis Toshney 1 0.07

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