Another reason why Alan Stubbs’ job security will be bound to the play-offs

written by – Rangers Report

Hibernian manager Alan Stubbs is on the verge of leading the club to another year of Championship football if he cannot direct them through a six match run in the upcoming promotion play-offs.

It is a safe bet that his job is on the line.

Of course, Hibs have had the misfortune of sharing time in the second tier with a Robbie Neilson led Hearts side that have since vaulted to the top three of the Premiership & then with Mark Warburton’s Rangers – who will be looking to replicate Neilson’s success next season.

Where does that leave Alan Stubbs & a Hibs squad whose depth may even surpass Rangers’ this season.

Analytics blogger, One Short Cornerpublished a graph this weekend to highlight how impressive Leicester City’s success is in relation to how much money they spend on wages.  That spurred me to see how well the various managers were doing in the Scottish Championship in relation to the overall transfer value of their squads.

Using projected values from TransfermarktI borrowed One Short Corner’s concept & compared the value of the squads to how many points per match that teams earned.

The results don’t bode well for Senior Stubbs.

Scottish Championship Points v Value of Squad

  • Based on those projected transfer values, Stubbs had the best squad to work with.  That quality came largely from the depth of good players on the team & the fact that Stubbs had players like Anthony Stokes, John McGinn, & Jason Cummings at his disposal.  If you use the trend line going through the heart of the graph, you see that Hibs really should have matched Rangers’ results this season.  Instead Stubbs’ squad finished tied with Falkirk, who have a squad with half the transfer value of Hibs.
  • Raith Rovers’ Ray McKinnon & Falkirk’s Peter Houston deserve to be in the conversation for manager of the year (alongside Mark Warburton, obviously)  as they have done more, with less then teams like Hibs & even St. Mirren.
  • Alex Rae had a mess to clean up when he was hired in December & is looking to completely overhaul his squad in the offseason (have your people call my peopleas their roster had a bunch of older players & a bunch of younger players & not much in between.

Disclaimer:  I know that Transfermarkt is not the gospel but it is a reference point that many have used in the past.  Their valuations are not perfect, but they’re not perfect for every team – so there isn’t that much discrepancy. #funwithgraphs

Make sure you spend some time over at One Short Cornerespecially if you are looking for some great introductory content on football analytics.

You can follow Rangers Report on Twitter @TheGersReport


2 thoughts on “Another reason why Alan Stubbs’ job security will be bound to the play-offs

  1. You are right that Stubbs has under performed but I do not believe the board will sack him even if Hibs are not promoted. The main reason is that, with the Board’s urging, he has also strongly contested the two Cups. This has clearly affected Hibs league form.


    1. Point taken & I actually like Stubbs as a manager…but he may be on a short leash next season. The Championship will continue to be competitive & promotion will not be guaranteed.


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