Rangers Shot Location Stats: Is there a concern in goal?

written by – Rangers Report

Last week we shared a visual showing Rangers shot location stats leading up to the final league match against St. Mirren.  Now that the league season is over, I figured that it would be wise to post the final results & also share the a similar visual showing shots that Rangers allowed.

Rangers took 280 shots from outside the box, 151 in the heart of the box, 37 in the vicinity of the six yard box, & 79 shots on the periphery areas in the box (both left & right).

These shots only include kicked shots, we’ll address headed shots in a future post.

Below you’ll find the total kicked shots from these locations, how many shots were on target, the amount of goals scored, the shot accuracy from these areas (the rate of how many shots were on target), the shooting percentage (goals divided by shots on target), the total Expected Goals from the area & finally the team’s goal percentage (rate of goals scored in relation to the total shots taken).

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I’m still a couple of weeks behind on tabulating the stats for the rest of the Championship, but based on the league stats up to that point:  Rangers outperformed the league averages in shooting percentage on shots from each location except for the shots from the heart of the box (High Danger Shots).  Even then, they were only slightly below the league average & they had substantially more shots from this area then any other team in the league.

Of the shots that Rangers took, 34% came from Very High Danger or High Danger areas, i.e. the central area of the penalty area – from the goal line out.  Based on the stats I have so far for other teams, Hibs have taken 33% of their kicked shots from the same areas & Falkirk has a rate of 49% (Wow!).  However, shot volume still gives Rangers the edge.  Rangers averaged 17.2 shots per game, while Hibs averaged 13.2 & Falkirk averaged 11.7.  That 4-6 shot difference each game adds up to differences of 140-200 shots over the duration of the season.

Now let’s look at shots allowed.

Rangers allowed 123 shots from outside the box, 41 from the heart of the box, eight from the vicinity of the six yard box, & 26 shots from the periphery areas inside the box (both left & right).

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Wes Foderingham’s save percentage was below average from each shot location except for shots from the heart of the penalty area.  His 0.636 save percentage is above the current league save percentage on High Danger shots of 0.608.  All of his other save rates are below the rest of the league & his save percentage on shots from outside the penalty box is among the worst in the league.

When it comes to Expected Goals allowed, you see the biggest difference is on those shots from outside the box.

Rather then make a rash judgement on these results, it would probably be best to look at each of those goals & see if they were indeed ‘saveable’ (a.k.a. – an idea for future post).

Is goalkeeping an area of concern?  Once I have caught up on the stats for the rest of the league, a priority will be to do a study of how much of an issue this really is.  Rangers are effective at suppressing shots, largely because they averaged a possession rate of 66%, & do a good job of limiting dangerous shots.  Only 25% of the kicked shots that Rangers allowed came from High Danger/Very High Danger areas.  For comparison, 31% of the shots Hibs allowed came from these dangerous areas & 36% of the shots that Falkirk allowed.  While Rangers defence has been criticized at times this season, they do deserve credit for forcing shots from areas with low success rates…that’s why it will be important to look back at the goals Foderingham allowed.

Keep an eye on the site for that follow-up on Wes Foderingham & a similar post on headed shots.

You can follow Rangers Report on Twitter @TheGersReport



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