written by – Rangers Report   

One of the goals of this site is to provide an objective view of what is happening on the football pitch.  Sometimes that matches up with the eyeball test & sometimes it doesn’t.  Statistics are factual, even though the extent to which they represent the truth is often open to discussion.

Who are the best manager in recent years in Scotland?  No Rangers fan is going to say Neil Lennon or Alan Stubbs & no Celtic supporter is going to say Ally McCoist (wait…umm – nobody says that).

Once we get past that initial supporter bias, then we will list off who the media has touted as being a good manager…or who we think we’re supposed to think is a good manager.

More importantly, how do clubs filter out who they think a good managerial candidate is?  Obviously, there is an old boy network that feeds some (if not, all) of the decision making & I think that most people would say that is the wrong way to go.

I look at the recruitment of managers the same way I would look at the recruitment of players.  Statistical analysis can become the entry point to finding the right fit for your club.  It’s not everything, but just like player recruitment – stats can flag players (or coaches) for further consideration.

If I was an Old Firm club looking for a list of coaches to interview with experience in the Scottish game – the short list of candidates to interview would be:  Robbie Neilson, Alan Stubbs, Alex Neil & Derek McInnes.  Obviously, Celtic wouldn’t interview McInnes, nor would Rangers interview Stubbs – but these are managers who have all won in Scotland & have a track record of improving the clubs they take over.

If I was running Hearts, Aberdeen or even Hibs – teams with aspirations to finish in the top three on a regular basis – I’d consider a Gary Holt or Ray McKinnon.  That’s about it….Neil Lennon was a coupe for Hibs, Hearts took the right approach with a calculated gamble on Ian Cathro & Aberdeen were fortunate that McInnes decided to stay because the pool  of experienced managers in Scotland who would be appropriate for that level of club is pretty shallow.

If you’re another Premiership club looking for a new manager, you really have to hone in on what it is you want in a coach.  If you remove the aforementioned names from the list & only look at certain characteristics that’s how you would find the candidates.  Basically, the number of managers who have proven that they can be successful with the multiple facets of leading a club is pretty minimal.

If all you care about is the bottom line:  results based on consistent goal differential then you’d look to coaches like Peter Houston or to a lesser extent Jackie McNamara (based on his stint with Partick).  Maybe even a Stuart McCall – but the fact that his Motherwell teams did not have a positive goal differential is a red flag. Or, you’d use the results as an opportunity to give John Brown another shot (his results were actually pretty decent).

Maybe you’re a team that needs improvement & needs a manager who has a track record of making his teams better.  Let’s say it’s December & you’re on the wrong end of the table – then maybe you turn to a Jim McIntyre (who turned around both Queen of the South & Dunfermline), a Jim Duffy, or give Terry Butcher another chance.

Let’s say you’re a club that wants to truly implement a five-year plan that is rooted in player development.  You want to rely on bringing younger players into the first team & building your team that way.  Then you’re adding names like Lee Clark, Billy Reid, Jim Jeffries & Jackie McNamara to your short list.

There are some names you didn’t expect to see on some of those lists.

These were not simply pulled out of my ass.

The names listed above were managers who had been among the best in Scotland at achieving those tasks (earning results, improving a team, & player development).  I didn’t include managers from the big five clubs (Rangers, Celtic, Hearts, Hibs, & Aberdeen) because if you’re Partick Thistle or Dundee that’s not the pool of coaches you can afford to recruit from.

My original goal was to develop a system that used statistical results to rank the best managers in Scotland since 2011….and that’s what you’ll ultimately find in this post.  However, as the process developed I quickly learned that there aren’t many who could “check off all of the boxes” if you’re a team with aspirations of long term success.

Most managers have clear strengths in their data & they also have obvious areas of improvement.  But you know what objective results do: they give teams an opportunity to identify those strengths & expose those areas of improvement.

If you’re going to hire a Jim McIntyre, you need to know that his track record of developing young players isn’t all that great (yet).  If you’re going to hire a Danny Lennon you need to realize that you’re probably not going to win very many matches, but he will give youth a chance.  Actually Robbie Neilson is the only manager who truly has won at a high rate while highly investing in young players.  It’s a complicated formula…

I decided to get the facts on the following categories:  points per game, average goal differential per 90 minutes, improvement in both of those categories, player development, & a manager’s success on the transfer market.

The first couple of categories were straight forward math.  Measuring a manager’s improvement meant comparing his results to the results of the previous boss (in both points per game & goal differential averages).

When it comes to player development, I worked out a system that favored giving players under the age of 22 a chance, while also honoring the smart play of relying on players in their peak years (23-28), & dinging coaches that relied too heavily on players 29 or older (no longer in their prime).   I also factored in that coaches often inherit a roster & don’t always have complete control over who he keeps or gets rid of based on contract situations.  To address that, I used the debutant data from Transfermarkt.com to tabulate which kinds of players the manager gave opportunities to.  Basically, did a manager rely on bringing in younger players into the first team for the first time at that level of competition or vice versa.

Finally, I did include the managers ability to make a profit via transfers into the rating system.  Again the data is from Transfermarkt & guess what – almost none of the managers was making a killing off of transfers.  Let’s just say Scotland hasn’t necessarily become a destination for clubs seeking to sign talent.

When ranking all of these results, I gave the most weight to the bottom line:  results & goal differential.  After that improvement in those areas & player development were given the next highest value.  Finally, making a profit in the transfer market was given the lowest value.

The rankings are not perfect & I’m the first to admit it.  Yes, Brendan Rodgers is ranked far too low, but that’s because the ranking system dinged him for being in the red with transfers (which Celtic can afford to do) & his player development (he inherited a pretty strong squad).  Also, I wish I had devised a way to not reward improvement so much if a manager took over in a lower division after relegation.  But then again, not every coach benefited from that scenario.

Even though it’s not a perfect list, it should be a good conversation starter given that it’s based in actual data.

Some notes:  a manager had to be in charge for a minimum of 20 games to be included.  Only matches in the Premiership & Championship were factored in.

Each manager received a rating (1-5) for each category.  I decided to get creative with those ratings as well.

• Points per game:  named after Walter Smith.  As in his points per game made him a five Walter Smith manager.
• Goal Differential per game:  named after Alex Ferguson.
• Improvement (points per game):  Graeme Souness
• Improvement (goal differential):  Martin O’Neill
• Player Development:  Jim McLean
• Moneyball:  Neil Lennon.  Not your typical Moneyball manager, but Lennon turned a fortune into an even bigger fortune.  This measures a manager’s ability to earn a profit via transfers.

I recommend clicking on each of the following graphics to more easily read the wonderful prose.

There’s your top 20 from the past six seasons in Scottish football.  The following managers are still ranked in order, just minus the fancy graphic.

A couple of notes on two managers who didn’t make the top 20.

Neil Lennon’s low rating with Hibs is partly due to inheriting a club that was already on the verge of promotion.  Hibs did average 1.97 points per game & a goal differential of 0.94 per 90.  However, those rates were only slightly better than Stubbs’ (+0.03 & +0.06).Lennon gave eight players their Hibs debut & his approach was on the short term.  Of those eight, three were 29 or older & only two were 22 or younger.

Ally McCoist, sigh…the man was my hero growing up.  As a manager, it was always going to be a challenge replacing Walter Smith & that shows in his improvement ratings.  Rangers averaged -0.18 less points per 90 under McCoist (his results from Division Three & League One aren’t included).

Ally was able to turn a mean profit but much of that was under duress.  Player development was a real weakness here: 31 players made debuts & 45% were 29 or older.  Only 29% were 22 years old or younger. 

Here’s the rest of the list with strengths & areas of improvement listed (when appropriate).

Rank	Manager	Club	Strengths	Areas of Improvement
21	John McGlynn	Hearts	Moneyball & Player Development	Results
22	Neil Lennon	Hibernian	Results	Player Development & Moneyball
23	Tommy Wright	St Johnstone	Results & Moneyball	Player Development
24	Ally McCoist	Rangers	Results	Improvement & Player Development
25	Billy Reid	Hamilton	Moneyball & Player Development	Goal Differential
26	Jack Ross	St Mirren	Goal Differntial	Results
27	Mark McGhee	Motherwell	Improvement & Moneyball	Player Development & Goal Differential
28	Allan Johnston	Dunfermline	Improvement	Player Development
29	Jackie McNamara	Dundee United	Moneyball & Player Development	Improvement
30	Peter Houston	Falkirk	Results & Moneyball	Player Development & Improvement
31	Allan Moore	Morton	Player Development	Improvement
32	Stuart McCall	Motherwell	Results	Goal Differential & Player Development
33	Gary Bollan	Livingston	Player Development & Moneyball	Results & Improvement
34	Pat Fenlon	Hibernian	Improvement	Results & Moneyball
35	Craig Brown	Aberdeen	Moneyball & Improvement	Results & Player Development
36	John McGlynn	Raith Rovers	Improvement	Player Development
37	John Hughes	Inverness	Results	Player Development
38	Jim Jefferies	Dunfermline	Player Development	Results & Improvement
39	Lee Clark	Kilmarnock	Player Development & Moneyball	Results
40	Paulo Sergio	Hearts		Improvement & Player Development
41	Ian Murray	Dumbarton	Player Development	Improvement
42	Barry Smith	Dundee		Player Development
43	Derek Adams	Ross County		Player Development & Goal Differential
44	John McGlynn	Livingston	Moneyball	Results & Player Development
45	Alex Rae	St Mirren	Improvement	Results & Player Development
46	Gary Naysmith	QoS		Results & Improvement
47	Jim McIntyre	Ross County	Moneyball	Results, Improvement & Player Development
48	Colin Cameron	Cowdenbeath		Results
49	Steve Lomas	St. Johnstone		Improvement & Player Development
50	Derek McInnes	St. Johnstone	Results	Improvement & Player Development
51	Gary Teale	St Mirren	Player Development	Results
52	Jimmy Boyle	Airdrie United		Results
53	James Fowler	QoS		Improvement & Player Development
54	Alan Archibald	Partick Thistle		Results & Improvement
55	Gary Locke	Hearts	Player Development	Results & Improvement
56	Gary Locke	Kilmarnock	Player Development	Results & Improvement
57	Danny Lennon	St Mirren		Results & Player Development
58	Paul Hartley	Dundee		Results, Improvement & Player Development
59	Jimmy Nicholl	Cowdenbeath	Player Development	Results
60	Ian Baraclough	Motherwell	Player Development	Results & Improvement
61	Mark Burchill	Livingston		Results & Improvement
62	Grant Murray	Raith Rovers		Results & Player Development
63	Ian McCall	Ayr United		Results
64	Kenny Shiels	Kilmarnock		Results, Improvement & Player Development
65	Allan Johnston	Kilmarnock		Results, Improvement & Player Development
66	Stephen Aitken	Dumbarton		Results, Improvement & Player Development
67	Danny Lennon	Alloa Athletic	Player Development	Results & Improvement
68	Gary Locke	Raith Rovers		Results & Improvement
69	Mixu Paatelainen	Dundee United		Results & Player Development
70	Ian Cathro	Hearts	Moneyball & Player Development	Results & Improvement
71	Martin Canning	Hamilton	Moneyball	Results & Improvement
72	Kenny Shiels	Morton	Player Development	Results & Improvement
73	Terry Butcher	Hibernian		Results, Improvement & Player Development
74	Richie Foran	Inverness		Results, Improvement & Player Development
75	Gus MacPherson	QoS		Results, Improvement & Player Development
76	Barry Smith	Alloa Athletic		Results, Improvement & Player Development

The complete list with all of the data can be found here.