Scoring Chances Should Be the First Step in Scouting Analytics

Scoring Chances is a term that refers to the probability of a successful kick or header from the penalty area. Having people on a team who can take those chances or defend their own goal from them guarantees a successful performance in any match.

Knowing your weaknesses and strengths helps you make good choices when buying new players. Thus, an experienced scout is a key link in shaping a club’s strategy. If he can statistically prove the need to change the lineup and acquire a particular player, the fans will see a stunning change.

The Hibs club is a good example. They show excellent performances, successfully taking advantage of more than 50% of the goalscoring possibilities. But they lag behind in the overall standings due to defensive missteps. They give their opponents more potential chances than they create. You can solve this dilemma in two ways.

You can strengthen the defense, but the number of potential goalscoring chances will still be relatively low compared to other clubs. And to find good free defenders is not so easy. The second solution would be to buy a player who specializes in key passes. For example Scott Allan. The new player would allow to create more scoring likelihoods and eventually take advantage of the strengths of the club’s forwards.

A similar approach should be taken in other cases. The mathematical and statistical models will almost always be similar. Scouts should focus on analyzing large databases and selecting new athletes based on the likelihood of their positive impact on the overall scoring chance.


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